Donald Trump's First Year Back: A Look at Public Opinion and Economic Priorities (2025-2026)

The reverberations of the 2024 presidential election led to Donald Trump's return to the White House in January 2025, ushering in a new chapter for American politics and economics. As the calendar turns to early 2026, it's timely to reflect on his first year back in office, dissecting the landscape of public opinion and evaluating the tangible effects of his administration's economic priorities. From sweeping tax reforms to assertive trade stances, this period has been defined by a renewed commitment to an 'America First' agenda, eliciting varied responses from the public and shaping the nation's economic trajectory.

The Public Opinion Pulse: A Mixed Verdict

Donald Trump's second term began with a wave of support, with his approval rating at approximately 47% on Inauguration Day in January 2025. However, as his first year back progressed, public sentiment saw a notable shift. By late December 2025, Gallup reported his job approval dipping to 36% [2], with other polls in January 2026 showing figures around 40-43% (New York Times/Siena at 40%, Emerson College at 43%, and RealClearPolling averaging 43%) [3, 2]. The Economist/YouGov survey recorded an even lower 37% approval and 56% disapproval in late January 2026, marking a record low for his second term in their polling [3].

Digging deeper, a significant partisan divide remains evident. While a substantial 89% of Republicans continued to approve of his job performance by late 2025, this contrasted sharply with only 3% of Democrats and 25% of independents [2].

Economic Concerns Dominate Sentiment

Perhaps the most telling indicator of public opinion revolves around the economy. Despite Trump's initial promises of a "golden age" and an end to inflation, a pervasive sense of economic dissatisfaction has taken root. As of January 2026, a striking 68% of Americans believe the economy has worsened over the past year [4]. Only 32% of voters felt the economy was better than a year ago [6].

A majority of voters expressed disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy. Specifically, only 24% of voters believed he had made life more affordable, and merely 34% felt he had effectively managed the cost of living [6]. In December 2025, approximately half of the American public even thought the U.S. was in a recession, despite official GDP growth figures [1]. Inflation and the cost of living remained the top issues for American voters by far [6, 7], with 61% disapproving of his administration's approach to these critical challenges [7].

Beyond economic anxieties, other issues contributing to public disapproval included immigration and foreign policy matters such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Venezuela.

Economic Priorities in Action: Policy and Impact

Donald Trump's second administration has largely pursued an economic policy framework characterized by lower taxation, extensive deregulation, and aggressive protective tariffs. This approach represents a blend of traditional Republican fiscal conservatism with a populist emphasis on state intervention in the economy and trade [4].

Taxation and Fiscal Policy

A cornerstone of his economic agenda has been the extension and potential expansion of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, a policy from his first term. This move, while intended to prevent a fiscal drag on growth, is projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to increase the national debt by over $4 trillion over the next decade if not offset by spending cuts [8]. Additional proposals to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits have also been put forth, though they face congressional resistance due to their potential to further balloon the national debt [8, 10]. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimated that Trump's tax and spending proposals would increase primary deficits by $5.8 trillion over ten years, and while GDP might initially increase, it would eventually fall relative to current law [11].

Deregulation Drive

Echoing his previous term, the administration launched what it termed the "largest deregulation initiative in U.S. history," claiming $5 trillion in savings. The stated goal was to remove ten regulatory rules for every new one, fostering an environment believed to be conducive to economic growth and investment by reducing burdens on businesses [9]. This rapid deregulation, particularly the removal of 'extra-regulatory' guidance, could be implemented swiftly without congressional approval [9]. The administration also established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk, aiming to cut federal spending, initially targeting $2 trillion in savings, later revised to $150 billion. By April 2025, DOGE reportedly saved over $160 billion, although the costs associated with mass layoffs of government employees offset much of these savings [8].

Tariffs and Trade Wars

Trade policy under the second Trump administration has been notably protectionist, with steep tariffs enacted on a wide range of imported goods. By April 2025, the average effective U.S. tariff rate surged to an estimated 27%, eventually stabilizing around 16.8% by November 2025 [12]. Specific new tariffs included 35% on Canadian goods, 30% on South African goods, and 20% on Vietnamese goods [13]. The administration also aimed for tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese goods and a 10% universal baseline tariff [9].

However, these tariffs have largely functioned as a consumption tax, with U.S. importers and consumers bearing 96% of the burden, not foreign exporters. While U.S. customs revenue increased by approximately $200 billion in 2025, and tariffs raised $132 billion in net tax revenue [14, 15], they also led to increased costs for households [12]. The protectionist measures sparked trade wars with countries like Canada and Mexico and intensified the existing trade conflict with China, contributing to global instability [4, 12]. Trade volumes for affected goods collapsed, but export prices did not fall [14]. Interestingly, by late autumn 2025, the administration had to lower tariffs on certain expensive goods, such as beef and coffee, reportedly after poor Republican performance in local and state elections [4, 16]. Economists had warned that tariffs could lead to slower growth or recession, but U.S. GDP continued to grow, partly attributed to the administration's eventual retreat from the highest initial tariff rates [12]. The tariffs are also seen as offsetting much of the economic benefits derived from the tax cuts [15].

Inflation, Employment, and Growth

Despite promises to rapidly drive down prices and end inflation, the first year back saw prices continue to climb, with nominal wage growth only barely outpacing inflation [4]. The average inflation rate for 2025 effectively held steady at 2.7%, partly due to the new tariffs offsetting an initial slowdown [4]. Food prices, including beef and coffee, significantly increased in 2025 [16], and gasoline prices did not reach the promised sub-$2 mark, remaining closer to $3 per gallon [4].

Job growth notably slowed in 2025, with only 473,000 nonfarm jobs added between January and December, a significant decrease compared to the 1.78 million jobs added in the preceding year under the Biden administration. Unemployment also edged up [4]. The promised large-scale return of industrial production and hundreds of thousands of jobs in the energy sector did not materialize as anticipated [4]. Overall, Federal Reserve Board members and business economists projected U.S. economic growth for 2025 to be under 2%, lower than Biden's final year in office, which was 2.8% [4, 17].

In terms of other notable actions, the administration reported achieving negative net migration in 2025, reversing a 50-year trend. It also claimed to have cut the U.S. trade deficit to its lowest level since 2009 through tariff enforcement and reciprocal trade pressure, and directed credit card companies to cap interest rates at 10% to provide consumer relief [10].

Challenges and the Road Ahead

Donald Trump's first year back in office has been marked by a complex interplay of ambitious economic policy objectives and their real-world consequences. While proponents lauded the deregulation efforts and tax extensions as stimuli for growth, critics pointed to rising costs for consumers due to tariffs and slower job creation as significant drawbacks. The high national debt and ongoing inflationary pressures remain persistent challenges. The administration's attempts to control various economic factors, from global trade to consumer credit, have clearly had diverse impacts.

Conclusion

Donald Trump's first year back as president (January 2025 - January 2026) has presented a dynamic and often turbulent landscape of policy implementation and public reaction. While his administration vigorously pursued its agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionist trade, public opinion polls consistently reveal widespread concern about the economy, particularly regarding inflation and the cost of living. The economic data for 2025 indicates a mixed bag: some areas saw growth, but job creation slowed, and tariffs proved to be a tax on American consumers. As the administration moves into its second year, the challenge will be to reconcile its policy ambitions with the persistent economic anxieties of the American public, and to demonstrate tangible improvements in the daily financial lives of citizens.

Featured image by Markus Winkler on Pexels